Tuesday, September 30, 2008

...And more of them voted....

Video's that just weren't important enough to show up on the news - guess it wasn't newsworthy? The public HATES this bill. CNBC even admitted that of all the emails they got on the topic, they did not recieve a single email in support of it. Not one!! Don't believe the hype even though it is now known as a Rescue plan rather than a Bailout. Hype.
http://tinyurl.com/4zq2qt



What's going on here? As heard on CNBC:
http://tinyurl.com/3vn5xr

Paulson and Bush threatened to veto the legislation if there was an explicit prohibition of transfers from foreign banks to an American subsidiary.

The assets do not even have to be American Mortgage assets – they can be an office tower in Shanghai! This money is going directly out of the country.



Who knows what their plan is, but for two guys (Bush and Paulson) who are BEGGING people to pass this bill, why would keeping the money in the US be a dealbreaker?

The Senate is voting tonight, the House again Friday (should we just keep voting until enough people get bribed?).

Senator Coleman 202-224-5641
Senator Klobuchar 202-224-3244

If you are so inclined, call now and tell them to vote against this bill because the money will not stay in the US. More importantly, call your Congresman too since they don’t vote until Friday – they are all up for re-election in a month. Find out who they are at congress.org if you don't know. Tell them you won’t vote for them if they vote for the bill as the money will not be used here.

But far be it from me to say what is right, because no matter what we do there is a very rough road ahead. Some of you think I’m an idiot, which is fine with me - but you also thought that a year ago, so I'll just have to live by my track record. Regardless, you should also call and instead lend your support to the above representatives as they will be happy to have some citizens on their side - and the more people being active now, the better.

But since it’s my blog...The money is doing worse than bailing out wall street, it's bailing out everyone the dill-holes on wall street screwed. With OUR money. Now we see why foriegn ministers spent today saying we need to pass this - UNREAL.

If it was the end of the world because the market tanked, how come it didn't continue, rather that go up 500 points? We are being played. We are being blackmailed. Get ready for an even worse economy than originally predicted – which was going to be horrid.

Final summary of what this bill is: A giant margin call on our countries debt. We don’t play ball, the world tells us to piss off and cuts us off. (recall that we owe 2 Billion a day in interest, we kinda need them)

Not that I was one of the masses living irresponsibly beyond my means, but...Pre-emptive giant SORRY to future generations.

Monday, September 29, 2008

And then they voted...

And now we see what happens when you don't allow shorting (and thus short covering). Floor gone. Have we ever lost 777 Dow points in a day? And we did it without the shorts help - who knew? That's enough on the market, other than 2 things, first a historical point you should heed, and 2nd a rumor - both as a reminder to be VERY careful out there:


With these major moves, I'm sure there's lots of people rushing to short the hole or go all-in long. Before you do, let me offer a quick sanity check -- historical perspective from the '29-32 bear market.

On Oct. 24, 1929 the Dow droped 9%. That was followed by a rally the next day of <1%. The next two trading days (Oct 28-29) saw a 13% and a 12% drop respectively.

If you shorted the hole on Oct 25, you did well - a 23% plunge over 2 days. However, if you shorted the hole after the Oct 29 drop, you got ***********, not for a day but for SIX WHOLE MONTHS, until April '30 with a peak of darn near FIFTY PERCENT above the low after the '29 crash.

In the spring of '30, it probably felt like the bottom was in. After all, that huge crash had happened 6 months earlier, and the market had been steadily churning out gains. If Jim Cramer were on TV in 1930, he would have been patting himself on the back for half a year on his correct bottom call. Ooops - wrong: the next two years would have to Dow drop over EIGHTY PERCENT to a 20th century low of 41.22.

So my point of boring you with this history lesson is that while history never repeats exactly, it often rhymes. Please be VERY VERY careful with positions. Volatility cuts BOTH ways. Market timing is very difficult and rather unpredictable - don't get overconfident just because you've timed the market right in the past. We live in truly historic times which are and will continue to be market by truly historic market moves.



And the rumor (for entertainment purposes of course):


I just recived a e-mail form a source in the big windy

"Spoke with a good friend, well-connected pension fund guy in Manhattan, he is CERTAIN the market tomorrow will close up huge. He only knows the close will be bloody for shorts."

"can you say the Intel you have? Rate cut? FDIC limits raised can you point me in the right direction?"

"Our source says the democrats have come up with the needed votes, that's all he told us on his cell phone from some lower Manhattan rest/bar."

At the second I got that e-mail the /es (futures) started to move north.

Take it with for what it is worth



What are the odds, especially now that it has been posted publicly, hopefully it doesn't work like that (but it seems to) - but be careful both ways regardless, nothing wrong with straight cash. I hope.



And now the less important part of me saying whatever I want 'cause it's my blog:

Let me state one thing off the bat. The bailout plan was a horrible deal. Anyone that says "see, we need it" is wrong. People who are long because the goverment would save us are wrong. And anyone who bought something expecting everyone else to cover them if they are wrong is not very nice/smart regardless. Go to Vegas and see how that works out for you.

The bill fixed nothing and stole $700B from us to give to people who caused this mess. They will ask for more, they need probably 5 times that. They tried to tell us we'd make a profit to push this through. ZERO chance of that. They told us the world would end if it didn't get passed to try to scare us. They pulled Buffet in (a private citizen) to talk to Congress (but didn't allow economists in) - talk about a conflict of interest, of course Buffet says to pass it, his empire depends on it.

Feel free to look it up, banks borrowed an average of 188 Billion a day from the Fed last week (which is already more than the miracle 700B). Where did that get us? It's not liquidity - it's solvency.

What we need is TRUST. We have been lied to. The rules have been changed on us. We are supposed to now trust them when they ask for $5000 per taxpayer no strings attached?

Who the heck wants to invest/play in a completely rigged game. EVERYONE is taking their ball and going home. The market isn't tanking because of the shorts, or the lack of a bailout - it's tanking because you don't know what to trust anymore. Confidence is gone. Thanks a lot Hank and Ben, this is the system you have now created.

On the other hand, major props to Fedupusa.org for the leadership in informing congress etc through massive faxes/phone calls and round-the-clock work. Every media outlet told us ALL weekend and right up to the vote that it was a DONE DEAL. EVERY SINGLE ONE. Talk about trying to sway the vote. The Fedup folks talked to
so many congressmen and it was very clear to them that this wasn't a slam dunk - so how did the entire media get it wrong???????????

Don't get me wrong, something HAS to be done. I don't have the perfect answer, because one DOES NOT EXIST. Greed and leverage destroyed the system. Can't fix that in a day/week/month/year. Time will heal it, but in the meantime there will be a lot of pain no matter what they do. That is why I'm against mortgaging the future
of the country to make a few few people happy now - seems pretty selfish. Oh, and I had a large long position that got hit quite hard today, so trust me, I'd much rather have had the market surge today.

My point is that I have learned the hard way over the years that throwing good money after bad doesn't fix things. The Fed has done that for the past year and where has it gotten us - oil is way up, food is way up, mutiple 100+ year old companies are gone, the largest Savings and Loan, the largest insurance company - not a single good thing has come from any of it.

Let them blame it on the public, the shorts, now Congress - there will be MANY scapegoats. Ignore it, the problem was the laws and Greenspan catering to the market with low rates, and everyone being encouraged and wrangled into buying a home whether they could afford it or not. The things I've read/heard that people did and said to swindle the public are sickening.

You want a solution - Denninger makes some great points here:
http://tinyurl.com/4ht4ns

Otherwise, if you want to see the severity of the situation, read Roubini's latest - he has been SO far ahead of all of this, and SO accurate. This should make everyone sit up and pay attention!
http://tinyurl.com/4t8ru7

Thursday, September 25, 2008

The beat goes on!

Gaaa, I can never catch up (I have so many saved up that I haven't had time to send yet). WaMu just got seized by the FDIC - largest bank failure in history. JPM buying the deposits (probably getting yet another sweet deal at our expense) to avoid completely bankrupting the FDIC. This is such a mess.

McCain causing problems for the 700B bailout too. Republicans actually showing some backbone here? Crazy stuff going on at the moment.

Call your senators, call your congressmen, tell them to stop the fleecing, it's being heard!! Calls have been 300 to 1 against the bailout.

Denninger and co have been on NBC news, the front page of the LA Times, the Financial Times and many other places, people are hearing us and at least asking questions of Paulson's joke of a plan.

Nobody even seemed to notice that the auto industry got their $25B bailout yesterday. More money for EACH of the automakers than Chrysler got in their major bailout (1.5B) back in the 80's.

The stuff I just mentioned (WaMu, auto) etc. is HUGE, and being dwarfed/snuck by everyone under the bailouts shadow.

Wish I could attach the hammer/sickle flag Trav sent me.


Tomorrow could be insane, if the talks don't go well tonight, Ben/Hank might just allow the markets to fail tomorrow to prove a point. Or they could come to agreement and "save the day" and the market rallies huge. Truly a time to play it safe on the sidelines or play VERY close attention.


**************

Don't even know where to start. Last Thursday the FED unleashed another $180 BILLLION onto the system. It disappeared. Literally. Gone. That forced Friday's actions of banning shorting (really?), announcing the bailout, and doing it all on options expiration. Nice job manipulators.

And they think the 700B will do anything other than be a complete waste of our money to bail out a bunch of jack-a$$es? Until the process starts again in a couple months.

Other great stuff on this site - but the two links on the left listing Paulson and Bernanke's lies is an eye-opener - and proof of what we've been discussing for over a year. This site was an off-shoot created by many hard-working individuals on the TickerForum - visit it!
http://www.fedupusa.org/



Paulson, reportedly to congress on his piece of sh$t bill:
"If it doesn't pass, then heaven help us all,"

F him and the F'ing bullshit he has spewed for the past year+. In case you still don't believe me, HE runs the planet. Do you think it's a coincidence that AIG, Bear etc get to live, and Lehman is let die? Be a friend of Paulson and you will live like a king. Unfortunately the other 99.99999999% of us are f'd.

He told us how strong everything was until he needs a bailout for his buddies, not it's heaven help us?!



Mish’s open letter to Congress
http://tinyurl.com/4275jc

Actually, Mish had a ton of good stuff the last couple days, scan them over if you have time.


Well guess what? Goldman and Morgan turned into banks last night. Not how I envisioned their end, but the investment bank model is now dead. I'm sure they will rally on the news, but they are now limited to be leveraged like 12 to 1 (oh, the humanity) instead of 30 or 40 to 1. Slash their future profits massively.

Taiwan, Australia, the Netherlands, Germany, Ireland, Dubai etc. all also banned short selling in some form. IT IS NOT THE SHORTS.

Ask Pakistan. Great charts in this one:
http://tinyurl.com/4orw6c


One of those fantastic Mish's I just mentioned. Includes "what you can do". Do it.
http://tinyurl.com/4thvvy


Finally, the video that explains it ALL. 47 minutes. Cartoon. Save it for later, but don't forget about it. It's the reason this country is on the verge of...
http://tinyurl.com/27jppm

********************


Sent to every congressman, but worth a read because it tells the story:

=========================

Enabling Act of 2008

Dear Member of Congress:

You are being asked to assign unprecedented powers to an unelected, and unaccountable former Wall Street banker, under the guise of bringing stability to the markets and solvency to our banking system. With one hastily thrown together vote, you are going to create the most powerful human being in world history – Henry Paulson.

This is being done for the purposes of fixing a “crisis” that has suddenly, in the last hour, been presented to Congressional leaders. This act would remove the constitutionally mandated powers of regulation of the money supply, and the value thereof, from Congress and give it to an unelected member of the President’s cabinet. According to the act, this person would be above judicial review, and be allowed a $700,000,000,000 revolving line of credit to print money on behalf of the United States government. That is more power than anyone has ever had – anyone. Caesar did not have this power.

This should sound eerily familiar.

In March of 1933, after the “crisis” of the Reichstag Fire, newly named Chancellor of Germany, Adolf Hitler, petitioned the German Reichstag to give him plenary powers over the affairs of German government. The Reichstag transferred its power, on an emergency basis, to the Cabinet of Germany for a period of four years, and this was called “The Enabling Act”. This was to deal with the perceived “crisis” of Communists within the German government, when the “crisis” was never fully substantiated. It is believed by most historians that the Reichstag Fire was a deliberate act to coax the Reichstag into giving up its power.

That history did not end well.

You are being goaded into giving Henry Paulson plenary powers over the economy and government spending, money supply, and value of that money. Those powers belong to you, held in trust for the citizens of the United States. Our Founders gave you those powers TO PREVENT THE VERY SCENARIO THAT SECRETARY PAULSON HAS PRESENTED TO YOU.

You are being manipulated.

For the past 13 months, Paulson, and Federal Reserve Chairman, Bernanke have repeatedly given public statements through the various media, and have testified to Congress on the soundess of our banking system. As that time has worn on, they have repeatedly come to Congress for various bailouts (Bear Stearns, AIG, Fannie/Freddie), as well as acted to install confidence through the manipulation of the Federal Reserve Monatary Policy, and announcing various liquidity programs to keep money in the banking system (TAF, TSLF). While they have been taking extraordinary measures to shore-up the banking system, they have always maintained that the system is sound and just needs a little time to get through a “soft spot,” or a “contained” problem (Subprime).

You now know that they were lying the entire time. There is no way to sugar coat this. They have been lying to you since March of 2007. They are lying now. This was plainly known to many in the professional and amateur investment communities, recently smeared as “short sellers.” It turns out that the cynics were right all along. This is why we have a free press.

Ask yourself, why didn’t they come to you for this unprecedented bailout last October, when Paulson attempted the same thing with various Wall Street banks? Surely, the problem was known last fall when Paulson attempted to create his “super SIV.”

Had he come to you at that time, there would have been at least 11 months to debate the issue, open it for public review, and deal with it while the stock market was trading at an all-time high. Why did he wait until the weekend before the Congressional recess for the bi-annual election cycle, and present the plan over a weekend where the public could not comment? Why did he have to wait until the stock market teetered on collapse, and the credit markets were frozen solid?

He needs a “crisis” so you will not oppose him.

Ask yourself, why did the Senate Majority Leader and Speaker of the House, as late as September 16, attempt to leave the issue in Washington and head back to their districts, leaving the Administration to clean up the mess, then suddenly have a change of heart less than 36 hours later? What was said? Why are the details of the briefing given to Congressional leaders not available for public review? Why are you being asked to vote for something so hastily and without proper briefing or public review? Does Democracy flourish in the dark, or does tyranny and fraud?

We know the following:

Paulson and Bernanke have lied for the duration of the credit crisis.
Every bailout has been bigger, more frequent, and has resulted in a much bigger “crisis.”

Now, Paulson and Bernanke are telling you that they really are telling you the truth and this bailout will work.

You are being played.

They are framing the issue in terms of Congress voting to rescue the banks and the markets. Let me be clear on this point: YOU ARE NOT VOTING ON THE HEALTH OF THE BANKS OR THE MARKETS. YOU ARE DECIDING WHO GETS WHAT MONEY IS LEFT OVER AFTER THEY FAIL. The markets (equity and credit) are going to experience a large dislocation, or in the common lexicon, “a crash.” That is an absolute certainty. You are merely deciding if the US citizens are going to keep their money, or give it to Wall Street bankers. You are deciding if the US government is going to survive or collapse. Giving Paulson unlimited spending powers will ensure that the government collapses. That is a certainty.

Paulson and Bernanke need to be removed from office for malfeasance. For 18 months, the health of the banking system has been very suspect. They have known all along what is happening and have failed to act. Their actions have been limited to lying to Congress and the American people and manipulating the accounting to cover the insolvency of the US banking system.

You are being asked to abdicate. The American people want their Constitution and their government to survive. We will rebuild what Wall Street has destroyed, but we need to keep our money in order to do it.

Vote against this unprecedented power grab. History shows the folly of such endeavors.

Very truly yours,



***************************





Sen Dodd: If we are paying $1 TRILLION (If that is the estimate, multiply it by 5 = America is gone, but that's a different story), don't you think we deserve to hear what was said?

Senator, you have got your hands full right now. Before we get into the specifics, describe the mood last night when you heard the potential dire consequences of what we're talking about now, if the federal government were just not to do anything. What were you told would happen?

SEN. CHRISTOPHER DODD (D), CONNECTICUT: Well, I'm going to be reluctant to repeat exactly the words, not because I can't remember them, but, because, if you were to repeat them exactly, I'm fearful it might cause even more concern.

I can't begin to tell you. I have been here for 28 years, Wolf, been in a lot of very critical meetings involving a lot of important events over the last quarter-of-a-century. I can't recall another occasion when I was in a room where statements were made about the conditions of not only our economy, but the global economy, that caused every member in that room, the leadership of the House, the Senate, Republicans, Democrats, leaders of committees, that, when Chairman Bernanke finished his appraisal, a brief appraisal, along with Hank Paulson, there was dead silence in the room for maybe five to 10 seconds.

The oxygen went out of the room. People were stunned by what they heard. And I'm angry about this, because I think this was preventable, I will tell you, but we're not going to talk about that today, because the issue is, what do we do?



As for the rumor as to what was said:
Rumour is that Ben said the DOW would go to 8300, payrolls would fail, factories would shut, businesses would close, within 48 hours.

Just a rumour...

********************************


Exerpt from Patrick Buchanan:
What we are witnessing today is how empires end.

The Last Superpower is unable to defend its borders, protect its currency, win its wars or balance its budget. Medicare and Social Security are headed for the cliff with unfunded liabilities in the tens of trillions of dollars.

What we are witnessing today is nothing less than a Katrina-like failure of government, of our political class, and of democracy itself, casting a cloud over the viability and longevity of the system.

Notice who is managing the crisis. Not our elected leaders. Nancy Pelosi says she had nothing to do with it. Congress is paralyzed and heading home. President Bush is nowhere to be seen.

Hank Paulson of Goldman Sachs and Ben Bernanke of the Fed chose to bail out Bear Sterns but let Lehman go under. They decided to nationalize Fannie and Freddie at a cost to taxpayers of hundreds of billions, putting the U.S. government behind $5 trillion in mortgages. They decided to buy AIG with $85 billion rather than see the insurance giant sink beneath the waves.

An unelected financial elite is now entrusted with the assignment of getting us out of a disaster into which an unelected financial elite plunged the nation. We are just spectators.

What the Greatest Generation handed down to us ­ the richest, most powerful, most self-sufficient republic in history, with the highest standard of living any nation had ever achieved ­ the baby boomers, oblivious and self-indulgent to the end, have frittered away.



********************

Non-req as it is quite anecdotal but very interesting - esp the 2nd part:


Every now & then i get a call from a very upscale salon near Wall St. to be a hair model. And if my hair happens to be too long like it was today i accept their invitation.

Today i happenned to be chit chatting with a stylist there from Russia and i mentioned that i had heard that the russian stock market got shut down this past fri. and i'm not even sure if they re-opened it.

She said "i dont know about the russian stock market but this one here is in REALLY big trouble!". Playing dumb i said "what do you mean"? And she went on to tell me that the Salon has lost DOZENS of regular clients over the past few months - many confided that they had been laid off and the others simply disappeared. The clients who they still have come with an extremely noticable difference in mood and many confide that they simply have no idea from day to day if they will still have a job and how they will be able to support their wife and kids and house. When she asks how bad it is they say things like "its REALLY BAD - TRUST me". And she said one guy really scared her the other day by talking about some foreign land that he owns that he would go to as a possible exit strategy. She feels that many of them are simply grabbing any money they can and sticking it away and preparing for the life they had on Wall St. to imminently end.

In another piece of news that is SURELY going to get me accused of tin - I got a call last night from my father (now a semi-retired lawyer) who told me that a friend of his called him and told him that his son made 17 MILLION Dollars going LONG on thursday afternoon and selling Friday morning. The person told my father that his son was in some sort of group that was tipped off DAYS IN ADVANCE and basically told to buy on thursday before the announcement. My father then told me that the whole thing was a plan to help re-capitalize the insolvent institutions that had to be bailed out. By timing this properly and leaking the information to the right people the FED was able to get tons of money into these institutions which means they will have to be bailed out that much less now that they made so much money from friday mornings pop.

Sunday, September 14, 2008

Wow! (Just a rant)

No time to put my links together or anything, but wow. So you've heard by now that the biggest financial event of our lifetimes happened last weekend - the government taking Fannie and Freddie over. Insane. Washington Mutual is on the brink of bankruptcy - one that will eat up half the FDIC fund - a fund that only covered like 1% of the bank deposits anyway. Ummmmmmm...

Now a WHOLE week later (yes all of this is happening TONIGHT), Lehman going bankrupt. Merrill Lynch gets shotgun-wedding bought by Bank of America (as it was OBVIOUS that Merril would not have made it through the week otherwise, post Lehman - nevermind the fact that Bank of America doesn't have the money for this), AIG (a FLIPPING INSURANCE COMPANY with NO access to help from the Fed etc.) says they need $40 BILLION from the Fed to keep going because they can't get money elsewhere, and to top all this off, the Fed is expanding it's lending facilities even more - and it will now accept EQUITIES as collateral!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Are you F'ing kidding me? Lehman went from $18 to zero last week, that's the type of stuff the Fed now accepts as collateral? And by "the Fed", I mean the taxpayer.

It won't get reported - as proven by the lack of caring the past week - but the Fannie/Freddie thing + this just sealed the fate of this country, and the financial system of the world. This WILL fail so badly. I don't even know what to say or think anymore. This is nuts.

If for some INSANE reason you still doubt the crap I've been spewing for 2 years now - welcome to the part where I say this: I told you.

Game over - you don't need me anymore. It'll be a real-time disaster for everyone to witness for generations to come. They'll blame it on other things - but these manipulations are what caused it. Greenspan caused it. Greed caused it. We'll all pay because we don't have friends in high places.

I am plain shocked. As for what happens to the stock market - who the heck knows in this rigged system? But nearly all banks are insolvent, and most companies will not be making money for a long time with a consumer that gets thrown more under the bus everyday (and doesn't even seem to notice/care) - so you tell me how that ends. Another hint the market gave us - the biggest bailout in the history of the world happened last Sunday, the market loved it - for 1 day.

(Oh by the way, I'm counting Merrill as having gone down. Which makes my Bear Stearns, Lehman, Merrill part of the prediction correct. Next is Morgan Stanley. I had it ending there. That just changed, JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs now go down too. Yep, the 6 biggest investment banks will be gone. Good riddance. Unreal.)

Wednesday, September 3, 2008

Oh, just get it over with!

The market is schizo. S&P fading downward, financials and builders are up. Day after day. For the past year+ that has meant one thing and one thing alone, hedge funds are blowing up. They are forced to unwind – buying back their financial/builder shorts, and selling their oil/commodity longs (energy now being the biggest part of the S&P). Hence you get the nutty effect noted above. And you can imagine what eventually happens.

We are once again getting dangerously close to closing below 1260 (1257 to be safe) – but we’ve seen this before and the market shot up to 1300. 1300 seems to be impenetrable to the upside though. For those playing the home version - If you see it again, I’d up those short positions to 50% of your intended stake. But at the rate the world economy is decelerating on a daily basis, seeing those levels would probably take trickery. I’m not giving up on 1320 (but most are), but each passing day makes it tougher to see happening. But make sure we close below 1257, I'm nearly certain we will test this 1260'ish area again and bounce up - the question is how high?

Regardless, we're about to break one way or the other soon. Simply because this last 2 weeks has been ridiculous and non-sensical to even the experts.

But what do you I know? This picture sums it up.
http://tinyurl.com/3daqnu


FDIC troubled banks list just jumped from 90 to 117. Assets at those banks jumped from $26B to $78B. IN ONE QUARTER. As for the usefulness of said lists, Indymac was not on them. I'll let you pick the multiplier to apply to theses numbers to get the real answer. Hint: Your number was too low.


Before I get to the links, something to keep in mind from Bloomberg:

The Standard & Poor's 500 Index, which had the worst first half since 2002, added 0.2 percent this quarter, the only gain among the world's 10 biggest markets in dollar terms. Shares in the benchmark index for American equity climbed to an average 25.8 times reported profits, the highest valuation in five years. The last time that happened, the S&P 500 fell 38 percent.




And now for the links:

Couple of interesting charts. Nice feat indeed.
http://tinyurl.com/6coud9


This video is WAY too funny
http://tinyurl.com/6caavp


This is why the housing downtrun won't end for YEARS. Whoever is allowing this sh*t to happen needs to be tarred and feathered TONIGHT.
http://tinyurl.com/5frvqm


Chart of the S&P since 1971. Raise your hand if you think that trendline holds us up yet again?
http://tinyurl.com/69q489


I got on her once upon a time, but she is coming around - great work getting on Greenspan like he deserves!
http://tinyurl.com/6qt66l


Putting the pieces together. Great summary with some great charts (Decline in Mortage Lending Standards was the most shocking to me). Consumer, RIP.
http://tinyurl.com/6mk7x7


"Large bank may fail" (not my words)
http://tinyurl.com/5rwdxh


Nice work IndyMac. Nice job regulators. Good estimates of value to both of you.
http://tinyurl.com/5u6b73




####################################################################

Items of "lessor" importance


How can you not include anything that mentions "BenSteinery". (Todd, how could you have breakfast with him and not give me warning?!) #7 is spot-on too.
http://tinyurl.com/5a662y

Prime defaulting faster than subprime now - yep, well "contained" dill-holes. Didn't see that coming [/sarcasm]
http://tinyurl.com/58sdog

Final update on the WaMu pool of complete crap:
http://tinyurl.com/5qamkb

His comments always make these articles even more interesting as well as easier to understand.
http://tinyurl.com/5u9xfr

Companies on the edge
http://tinyurl.com/6kdqky



And for your reading pleasure to close the Replay - a take on the DAILY rumors we are hearing about Lehman (tick, tick, tick...)


Breaking News: Lehman To Be Acquired by Tooth Fairy

The market responded with enthusiasm to reports that the Tooth Fairy has agreed to acquire Lehman. The purchase price has not yet been determined and will be set by Dick Fuld wishing upon a star, clicking his heels three times, and being transported back to that magical place where Lehman still sells for over $70 per share.

In related news, Lehman has agreed to sell all of its level III capital, including CDOs, ABSs, pet rocks, baseball cards, slightly used condoms, and credit default swaps written by MBIA and Ambac. Lehman’s level III capital will be acquired for 150% of its face value by Tinkerbell, who will carry it off to Neverland to be fed to a crocodile. Lehman is financing 90% of the acquisition at an interest rate that has not been announced; Tinkerbell’s up-front payment consists of a handful of pixie dust, three crickets, and a bullfrog. Analyst Dick Bove estimates that the bullfrog could eventually be transformed into three princes and a pumpkin coach. The deal gives Lehman no recourse to any of Tinkerbell’s assets other than the Level III capital. If Tinkerbell defaults, Lehman’s successor entity will stick its hand down the crocodile’s throat and attempt to get it to regurgitate. The firm’s historical value-at-risk analysis shows that sticking your hand down a crocodile’s throat is completely safe.

Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson issued a statement: “I am delighted that SWFs (Sovereign Wealth Fairies) continue to express confidence in the terrific values represented by American financial institutions. As I have been saying since August of 2007, this shows that the crisis is now over.”

Meanwhile, the SEC has announced an investigation of mean, evil, bad short-seller David Einhorn. While out for a beer with a friend, Einhorn reportedly suggested that the Tooth Fairy does not exist and that wishing upon a star is not a wholly reliable price discovery mechanism. Christopher Cox, chairman of the SEC, said, “Vicious rumors attacking the Tooth Fairy will not be tolerated. Our entire financial system and indeed the American way of life depend on the Tooth Fairy and wishing upon a star. How else could one value level III capital appropriately?” The SEC is reportedly planning to set up re-education camps for short-sellers.